# Fuel prices this week: the live signal before the EU bulletin

The European Commission’s Weekly Oil Bulletin gives each EU country’s average pump prices on a Monday and comes out a few days later. Our live data change every day. For the 10 EU countries where we collect daily prices, this page shows which way live prices have moved since the last Bulletin, and how often that direction has matched the Bulletin in past weeks. It is a direction signal, not a forecast.

URL: https://www.fuel-prices.eu/press/live-signal/
Data date: 2026-11-11

## Key numbers
- **4 of 6** Diesel: reliable live signals pointing down since the 2 Nov 2026 Bulletin — Denmark, France, Greece and Romania · latest live day by country: 9 Nov 2026
- **21 of 23** Romania, diesel: weeks in which live data matched the Bulletin’s direction — 91.3% · Bulletins of 25 May – 2 Nov 2026
- **6 of 8** EU countries with a reliable diesel signal — Same direction as the Bulletin in at least 80% of at least 10 weeks · petrol: 6 of 8
- **−11.7 c/L** Croatia, diesel: live average vs the Bulletin, same Mondays — Euro cents per litre, mean of 12 Mondays (17 Aug – 2 Nov 2026): live below the Bulletin, so only directions are compared

Live: fuel-prices.eu daily national averages from live data (research dataset D2), to 11 Nov 2026 · Bulletin: EU Weekly Oil Bulletin (European Commission), prices of 2 Nov 2026 · 10 EU countries

## This week so far — Diesel
| Country | Direction | Change since 2 Nov (euro cents/L) | Signal | Record at this point (weeks matched) | Live data to |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Croatia | ↑ Up | 1.0 | Shown | 11 of 12 · 91.7% | 9 Nov |
| Denmark | ↓ Down | −9.4 | Shown | 16 of 16 · 100.0% | 9 Nov |
| France | ↓ Down | −13.6 | Shown | 15 of 18 · 83.3% | 9 Nov |
| Greece | ↓ Down | −3.3 | Shown | 18 of 18 · 100.0% | 9 Nov |
| Romania | ↓ Down | −1.1 | Shown | 21 of 23 · 91.3% | 9 Nov |
| Slovenia | ↑ Up | 1.4 | Shown | 10 of 12 · 83.3% | 9 Nov |
| Italy | — | n/a | Full weeks below 80% | 14 of 18 · 77.8% | 9 Nov |
| Spain | — | n/a | Full weeks below 80% | 14 of 18 · 77.8% | 9 Nov |

## This week so far — Petrol
| Country | Direction | Change since 2 Nov (euro cents/L) | Signal | Record at this point (weeks matched) | Live data to |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Croatia | → Flat | 0.0 | Shown | 11 of 12 · 91.7% | 9 Nov |
| Denmark (petrol: minus average discounts) | ↓ Down | −10.8 | Shown | 16 of 16 · 100.0% | 9 Nov |
| Greece | ↓ Down | −7.0 | Shown | 16 of 18 · 88.9% | 9 Nov |
| Romania | ↓ Down | −4.5 | Shown | 20 of 23 · 87.0% | 9 Nov |
| Slovenia | ↓ Down | −0.1 | Shown | 11 of 12 · 91.7% | 9 Nov |
| Spain | ↓ Down | −4.8 | Shown | 17 of 18 · 94.4% | 9 Nov |
| France | — | n/a | Full weeks below 80% | 14 of 18 · 77.8% | 9 Nov |
| Italy | — | n/a | Full weeks below 80% | 14 of 18 · 77.8% | 9 Nov |

> Denmark (petrol): the Bulletin figure is current consumer prices minus the previous quarter’s average discounts, not a survey of pump prices.

## The numbers — Diesel
| Country | Match | Matched | Weeks | Signal | Change gap (euro cents/L, average) | Level gap (euro cents/L, live − Bulletin) | Period |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Greece | 100.0% | 18 | 18 | Yes | 0.3 | 1.3 | 29 Jun – 2 Nov 2026 |
| Denmark | 100.0% | 16 | 16 | Yes | 1.2 | 4.4 | 13 Jul – 2 Nov 2026 |
| Croatia | 91.7% | 11 | 12 | Yes | 0.8 | −11.7 | 10 Aug – 2 Nov 2026 |
| Romania | 91.3% | 21 | 23 | Yes | 1.5 | −0.5 | 25 May – 2 Nov 2026 |
| France | 83.3% | 15 | 18 | Yes | 1.2 | 2.2 | 29 Jun – 2 Nov 2026 |
| Slovenia | 83.3% | 10 | 12 | Yes | 5.7 | 0.9 | 10 Aug – 2 Nov 2026 |
| Italy | 77.8% | 14 | 18 | Below 80% | 1.9 | 2.1 | 29 Jun – 2 Nov 2026 |
| Spain | 77.8% | 14 | 18 | Below 80% | 1.2 | 0.7 | 29 Jun – 2 Nov 2026 |

## The numbers — Petrol
| Country | Match | Matched | Weeks | Signal | Change gap (euro cents/L, average) | Level gap (euro cents/L, live − Bulletin) | Period |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Denmark (petrol: minus average discounts) | 100.0% | 16 | 16 | Yes | 1.2 | −22.5 | 13 Jul – 2 Nov 2026 |
| Spain | 94.4% | 17 | 18 | Yes | 1.2 | 0.0 | 29 Jun – 2 Nov 2026 |
| Croatia | 91.7% | 11 | 12 | Yes | 0.3 | −5.7 | 10 Aug – 2 Nov 2026 |
| Slovenia | 91.7% | 11 | 12 | Yes | 2.0 | 1.1 | 10 Aug – 2 Nov 2026 |
| Greece | 88.9% | 16 | 18 | Yes | 0.2 | 1.4 | 29 Jun – 2 Nov 2026 |
| Romania | 87.0% | 20 | 23 | Yes | 0.5 | 0.0 | 25 May – 2 Nov 2026 |
| France | 77.8% | 14 | 18 | Below 80% | 1.4 | −3.3 | 29 Jun – 2 Nov 2026 |
| Italy | 77.8% | 14 | 18 | Below 80% | 1.3 | 1.2 | 29 Jun – 2 Nov 2026 |

> Denmark (petrol): the Bulletin figure is current consumer prices minus the previous quarter’s average discounts, not a survey of pump prices.

## Ready-to-quote sentences
- Between Monday 2 November 2026 and 9 November 2026, average diesel pump prices rose in Croatia and Slovenia and fell in Denmark, France, Greece and Romania, according to fuel-prices.eu live data. These are the 6 countries for which fuel-prices.eu shows a reliable diesel signal this week, because the live change has moved in the same direction as the EU Weekly Oil Bulletin in at least 80% of at least 10 past weeks. A direction signal ahead of the Bulletin with prices of 9 November 2026, not a forecast.
- Between Monday 2 November 2026 and 9 November 2026, average petrol pump prices fell in Denmark, Spain, Greece, Romania and Slovenia and were unchanged in Croatia, according to fuel-prices.eu live data. These are the 6 countries for which fuel-prices.eu shows a reliable petrol signal this week, because the live change has moved in the same direction as the EU Weekly Oil Bulletin in at least 80% of at least 10 past weeks. A direction signal ahead of the Bulletin with prices of 9 November 2026, not a forecast. For Denmark, the Bulletin’s petrol figure is consumer prices minus the previous quarter’s average discounts, not a survey of pump prices.
- In 21 of the 23 weeks compared between 25 May 2026 and 2 November 2026 (91.3%), the week-on-week change in the average diesel price in fuel-prices.eu’s live data for Romania moved in the same direction as the change in the EU Weekly Oil Bulletin (European Commission) for the same Mondays.
- In 6 of the 10 EU countries where fuel-prices.eu collects daily live prices (Croatia, Denmark, France, Greece, Romania and Slovenia), the weekly change in live diesel prices has moved in the same direction as the EU Weekly Oil Bulletin (European Commission) in at least 80% of weeks, with at least 10 weeks compared, using Bulletins up to 2 November 2026. For petrol, the same holds in 6: Croatia, Denmark, Greece, Romania, Slovenia and Spain.
- On 12 Mondays from 17 August 2026 to 2 November 2026, fuel-prices.eu’s live average price of diesel in Croatia was on average 11.7 euro cents per litre below the figure in the EU Weekly Oil Bulletin for the same day; the two measure prices differently, so only their direction is compared.
- Across the 10 EU countries covered by fuel-prices.eu’s live data, the change in live prices after one day of the week moved in the same direction as the next EU Weekly Oil Bulletin in 68.6% of 264 cases, the change over a full week in 88.1% of 270 (diesel and petrol, Bulletins up to 2 November 2026).

## Methodology & caveats
- What is compared. For each country and fuel, the change in our live national average between two consecutive Mondays, and the change in the EU Weekly Oil Bulletin figure between the same two Mondays (the Bulletin reports prices in force on Monday). Both changes are in euro per litre, taxes included.
- Live figures. The daily national statistics of our research dataset D2 (/research/): the average of the prices published that day by every station in the national feed, after removing implausible prices (below half or above twice the day’s median). Greece: average of the prefecture averages published by the Fuel Price Observatory. Days that D2 flags as low coverage are left out. Denmark and Romania are converted to euro at the ECB rate of each day.
- Fuels. Diesel, and 95-octane petrol as shown on our live pages (France: SP95-E10; Denmark: 95 E10; Romania: standard petrol 95). The Bulletin’s petrol figure is Euro-super 95.
- Bulletin figures. National average pump prices with taxes, € per litre, as currently published in the European Commission’s Weekly Oil Bulletin price history (a week the Commission revised uses the revised figure). The Bulletin usually comes out on the Thursday after its Monday price date.
- Direction. Up (↑) when a change is at least +0.05 euro cents per litre (+0.1 after rounding), down (↓) when it is at most −0.05, otherwise unchanged (→). A week matches when the live change and the Bulletin change have the same direction.
- Match, gaps. Match = weeks with the same direction ÷ weeks compared. Average gap = mean distance between the two weekly changes. Level gap = mean of (live average − Bulletin figure) on the closing Monday of each week; it varies by country because the two are measured differently (all stations in the feed on one day, versus each government’s own national average method).
- When a direction is shown. Only where the live signal matched the Bulletin in at least 80% of at least 10 full weeks, and also in at least 80% of at least 10 weeks at this point of the week (the same number of days after Monday as today’s latest live data). Otherwise the table says why: not enough history, below 80%, or too early this week. The thresholds are ours; they are not a statistical test.
- What this is not. Not a forecast of prices, of the Bulletin figure or of the EU average: the signal covers 8 of the 27 EU countries and gives only a direction. Live averages are not estimates of the Bulletin level. Past agreement does not guarantee future agreement, especially when prices barely move or when a tax change takes effect on a set date.
- Countries. Croatia, Denmark, France, Greece, Italy, Romania, Slovenia and Spain: the EU countries in our public daily dataset D2. The other 19 EU countries are not in D2, so they are not covered here.
- Updates. Daily, after our research dataset D2 is rebuilt each morning, and when a new Bulletin arrives. Each figure on this page is dated: “live data to” is the last day of live data used, “Bulletin of” the Monday price date of the last Bulletin.
- Week-by-week data. Every week used in the tables, with both prices and both changes: download the CSV.

## How to cite
Source: fuel-prices.eu, live data (fuel-prices.eu research dataset D2) and the EU Weekly Oil Bulletin (European Commission) — https://www.fuel-prices.eu/press/live-signal/ — CC BY 4.0