# Fuel prices this week: the live signal before the EU bulletin

The European Commission’s Weekly Oil Bulletin gives each EU country’s average pump prices on a Monday and comes out a few days later. Our live data change every day. For the 10 EU countries where we collect daily prices, this page shows which way live prices have moved since the last Bulletin, and how often that direction has matched the Bulletin in past weeks. It is a direction signal, not a forecast.

URL: https://www.fuel-prices.eu/press/live-signal/
Data date: 2026-09-27

## Key numbers
- **6 of 6** Petrol: reliable live signals pointing up since the 21 Sep 2026 Bulletin — Denmark, Spain, France, Greece, Lithuania and Romania · latest live day by country: 24–27 Sep 2026
- **21 of 21** Lithuania, petrol: weeks in which live data matched the Bulletin’s direction — 100.0% · Bulletins of 13 Apr – 21 Sep 2026
- **6 of 10** EU countries with a reliable diesel signal — Same direction as the Bulletin in at least 80% of at least 10 weeks · petrol: 6 of 10
- **−11.8 c/L** Croatia, diesel: live average vs the Bulletin, same Mondays — Euro cents per litre, mean of 6 Mondays (17 Aug – 21 Sep 2026): live below the Bulletin, so only directions are compared

Live: fuel-prices.eu daily national averages from live data (research dataset D2), to 27 Sep 2026 · Bulletin: EU Weekly Oil Bulletin (European Commission), prices of 21 Sep 2026 · 10 EU countries

## This week so far — Diesel
| Country | Direction | Change since 21 Sep (euro cents/L) | Signal | Record at this point (weeks matched) | Live data to |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Denmark | ↓ Down | −0.7 | Shown | 10 of 10 · 100.0% | 27 Sep |
| France | ↑ Up | 0.2 | Shown | 11 of 12 · 91.7% | 27 Sep |
| Lithuania | ↑ Up | 1.8 | Shown | 17 of 20 · 85.0% | 25 Sep |
| Romania | ↑ Up | 0.4 | Shown | 15 of 17 · 88.2% | 27 Sep |
| Spain | ↓ Down | −0.1 | Shown | 10 of 12 · 83.3% | 27 Sep |
| Austria | — | n/a | Not enough history | 7 of 7 · 100.0% | 24 Sep |
| Croatia | — | n/a | Not enough history | 6 of 6 · 100.0% | 27 Sep |
| Greece | — | n/a | Too early this week | 9 of 12 · 75.0% | 24 Sep |
| Italy | — | n/a | Full weeks below 80% | 9 of 11 · 81.8% | 26 Sep |
| Slovenia | — | n/a | Not enough history | 4 of 6 · 66.7% | 27 Sep |

## This week so far — Petrol
| Country | Direction | Change since 21 Sep (euro cents/L) | Signal | Record at this point (weeks matched) | Live data to |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Denmark (petrol: minus average discounts) | ↑ Up | 4.6 | Shown | 10 of 10 · 100.0% | 27 Sep |
| France | ↑ Up | 1.5 | Shown | 11 of 12 · 91.7% | 27 Sep |
| Greece | ↑ Up | 0.3 | Shown | 12 of 12 · 100.0% | 24 Sep |
| Lithuania | ↑ Up | 1.9 | Shown | 18 of 20 · 90.0% | 25 Sep |
| Romania | ↑ Up | 0.9 | Shown | 15 of 17 · 88.2% | 27 Sep |
| Spain | ↑ Up | 0.6 | Shown | 11 of 12 · 91.7% | 27 Sep |
| Austria | — | n/a | Not enough history | 4 of 8 · 50.0% | 24 Sep |
| Croatia | — | n/a | Not enough history | 6 of 6 · 100.0% | 27 Sep |
| Italy | — | n/a | Full weeks below 80% | 8 of 11 · 72.7% | 26 Sep |
| Slovenia | — | n/a | Not enough history | 5 of 6 · 83.3% | 27 Sep |

> Denmark (petrol): the Bulletin figure is current consumer prices minus the previous quarter’s average discounts, not a survey of pump prices.

## The numbers — Diesel
| Country | Match | Matched | Weeks | Signal | Change gap (euro cents/L, average) | Level gap (euro cents/L, live − Bulletin) | Period |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Greece | 100.0% | 12 | 12 | Yes | 0.4 | 1.1 | 29 Jun – 21 Sep 2026 |
| Denmark | 100.0% | 10 | 10 | Yes | 1.9 | 5.2 | 13 Jul – 21 Sep 2026 |
| Austria | 100.0% | 7 | 7 | Not enough history | 2.5 | −2.9 | 3 Aug – 21 Sep 2026 |
| Croatia | 100.0% | 6 | 6 | Not enough history | 1.0 | −11.8 | 10 Aug – 21 Sep 2026 |
| Lithuania | 95.2% | 20 | 21 | Yes | 1.0 | −1.0 | 13 Apr – 21 Sep 2026 |
| Romania | 94.1% | 16 | 17 | Yes | 1.6 | −0.4 | 25 May – 21 Sep 2026 |
| France | 91.7% | 11 | 12 | Yes | 1.1 | 2.4 | 29 Jun – 21 Sep 2026 |
| Spain | 83.3% | 10 | 12 | Yes | 1.5 | 1.2 | 29 Jun – 21 Sep 2026 |
| Italy | 75.0% | 9 | 12 | Below 80% | 1.5 | 5.0 | 29 Jun – 21 Sep 2026 |
| Slovenia | 66.7% | 4 | 6 | Not enough history | 9.4 | 1.6 | 10 Aug – 21 Sep 2026 |

## The numbers — Petrol
| Country | Match | Matched | Weeks | Signal | Change gap (euro cents/L, average) | Level gap (euro cents/L, live − Bulletin) | Period |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Lithuania | 100.0% | 21 | 21 | Yes | 1.0 | −1.3 | 13 Apr – 21 Sep 2026 |
| Denmark (petrol: minus average discounts) | 100.0% | 10 | 10 | Yes | 1.8 | −22.4 | 13 Jul – 21 Sep 2026 |
| Croatia | 100.0% | 6 | 6 | Not enough history | 0.2 | −5.7 | 10 Aug – 21 Sep 2026 |
| Greece | 91.7% | 11 | 12 | Yes | 0.2 | 1.3 | 29 Jun – 21 Sep 2026 |
| Spain | 91.7% | 11 | 12 | Yes | 1.1 | 0.7 | 29 Jun – 21 Sep 2026 |
| France | 83.3% | 10 | 12 | Yes | 1.6 | −3.0 | 29 Jun – 21 Sep 2026 |
| Slovenia | 83.3% | 5 | 6 | Not enough history | 3.1 | 2.1 | 10 Aug – 21 Sep 2026 |
| Romania | 82.4% | 14 | 17 | Yes | 0.6 | 0.0 | 25 May – 21 Sep 2026 |
| Italy | 75.0% | 9 | 12 | Below 80% | 1.3 | 1.6 | 29 Jun – 21 Sep 2026 |
| Austria | 75.0% | 6 | 8 | Not enough history | 2.1 | −1.2 | 27 Jul – 21 Sep 2026 |

> Denmark (petrol): the Bulletin figure is current consumer prices minus the previous quarter’s average discounts, not a survey of pump prices.

## Ready-to-quote sentences
- Between Monday 21 September 2026 and 25–27 September 2026 (the latest day of live data in each country), average diesel pump prices rose in France, Lithuania and Romania and fell in Denmark and Spain, according to fuel-prices.eu live data. These are the 5 countries for which fuel-prices.eu shows a reliable diesel signal this week, because the live change has moved in the same direction as the EU Weekly Oil Bulletin in at least 80% of at least 10 past weeks. A direction signal ahead of the Bulletin with prices of 28 September 2026, not a forecast.
- Average petrol pump prices rose in Denmark, Spain, France, Greece, Lithuania and Romania between Monday 21 September 2026 and 24–27 September 2026 (the latest day of live data in each country), according to fuel-prices.eu live data: all 6 countries for which fuel-prices.eu shows a reliable petrol signal this week, because the live change has moved in the same direction as the EU Weekly Oil Bulletin in at least 80% of at least 10 past weeks. A direction signal ahead of the Bulletin with prices of 28 September 2026, not a forecast. For Denmark, the Bulletin’s petrol figure is consumer prices minus the previous quarter’s average discounts, not a survey of pump prices.
- In 21 of the 21 weeks compared between 13 April 2026 and 21 September 2026 (100.0%), the week-on-week change in the average petrol price in fuel-prices.eu’s live data for Lithuania moved in the same direction as the change in the EU Weekly Oil Bulletin (European Commission) for the same Mondays.
- In 6 of the 10 EU countries where fuel-prices.eu collects daily live prices (Denmark, France, Greece, Lithuania, Romania and Spain), the weekly change in live diesel prices has moved in the same direction as the EU Weekly Oil Bulletin (European Commission) in at least 80% of weeks, with at least 10 weeks compared, using Bulletins up to 21 September 2026. For petrol, the same holds in 6: Denmark, France, Greece, Lithuania, Romania and Spain.
- On 6 Mondays from 17 August 2026 to 21 September 2026, fuel-prices.eu’s live average price of diesel in Croatia was on average 11.8 euro cents per litre below the figure in the EU Weekly Oil Bulletin for the same day; the two measure prices differently, so only their direction is compared.
- Across the 10 EU countries covered by fuel-prices.eu’s live data, the change in live prices after one day of the week moved in the same direction as the next EU Weekly Oil Bulletin in 65.9% of 229 cases, the change over a full week in 90.0% of 231 (diesel and petrol, Bulletins up to 21 September 2026).

## Methodology & caveats
- What is compared. For each country and fuel, the change in our live national average between two consecutive Mondays, and the change in the EU Weekly Oil Bulletin figure between the same two Mondays (the Bulletin reports prices in force on Monday). Both changes are in euro per litre, taxes included.
- Live figures. The daily national statistics of our research dataset D2 (/research/): the average of the prices published that day by every station in the national feed, after removing implausible prices (below half or above twice the day’s median). Greece: average of the prefecture averages published by the Fuel Price Observatory. Days that D2 flags as low coverage are left out. Denmark and Romania are converted to euro at the ECB rate of each day.
- Fuels. Diesel, and 95-octane petrol as shown on our live pages (France: SP95-E10; Austria and Denmark: 95 E10; Romania: standard petrol 95). The Bulletin’s petrol figure is Euro-super 95.
- Bulletin figures. National average pump prices with taxes, € per litre, as currently published in the European Commission’s Weekly Oil Bulletin price history (a week the Commission revised uses the revised figure). The Bulletin usually comes out on the Thursday after its Monday price date.
- Direction. Up (↑) when a change is at least +0.05 euro cents per litre (+0.1 after rounding), down (↓) when it is at most −0.05, otherwise unchanged (→). A week matches when the live change and the Bulletin change have the same direction.
- Match, gaps. Match = weeks with the same direction ÷ weeks compared. Average gap = mean distance between the two weekly changes. Level gap = mean of (live average − Bulletin figure) on the closing Monday of each week; it varies by country because the two are measured differently (all stations in the feed on one day, versus each government’s own national average method).
- When a direction is shown. Only where the live signal matched the Bulletin in at least 80% of at least 10 full weeks, and also in at least 80% of at least 10 weeks at this point of the week (the same number of days after Monday as today’s latest live data). Otherwise the table says why: not enough history, below 80%, or too early this week. The thresholds are ours; they are not a statistical test.
- What this is not. Not a forecast of prices, of the Bulletin figure or of the EU average: the signal covers 10 of the 27 EU countries and gives only a direction. Live averages are not estimates of the Bulletin level. Past agreement does not guarantee future agreement, especially when prices barely move or when a tax change takes effect on a set date.
- Countries. Austria, Croatia, Denmark, France, Greece, Italy, Lithuania, Romania, Slovenia and Spain: the EU countries in our public daily dataset D2. The other 17 EU countries are not in D2, so they are not covered here.
- Updates. Daily, after our research dataset D2 is rebuilt each morning, and when a new Bulletin arrives. Each figure on this page is dated: “live data to” is the last day of live data used, “Bulletin of” the Monday price date of the last Bulletin.
- Week-by-week data. Every week used in the tables, with both prices and both changes: download the CSV.

## How to cite
Source: fuel-prices.eu, live data (fuel-prices.eu research dataset D2) and the EU Weekly Oil Bulletin (European Commission) — https://www.fuel-prices.eu/press/live-signal/ — CC BY 4.0