Fuel prices this week: the live signal before the EU bulletin

The next EU Weekly Oil Bulletin will give prices of Monday 28 September 2026 (it usually comes out on the Thursday after). The table shows how the live national average has moved since Monday 21 September 2026, the price date of the last Bulletin. A direction is shown only where the live signal has matched the Bulletin in at least 80% of at least 10 past weeks, over full weeks and at this point of the week (the same number of days after Monday).

Early in the week the signal is weaker: across the 10 countries and both fuels, the change after one day moved in the same direction as the next Bulletin in 65.9% of 229 cases, the change over the full week in 90.0% of 231.

• ↑ Up / ↓ Down: the live national average moved by at least 0.05 euro cents per litre (0.1 after rounding); → Flat: by less.
• Change = live national average on the last day with data minus the live national average on Monday 21 Sep 2026, in euro cents per litre. Live averages are not Bulletin estimates: the two differ in level (see “The numbers”).
• Too early this week: the full-week record passes, but at this point of the week the signal has matched in fewer than 80% of weeks or in fewer than 10 weeks.
• Denmark and Romania: live prices converted to euro at the ECB rate of each day, the Bulletin at its own weekly rate; very small moves can come from the exchange rate.

For each country and fuel: how many weeks we could compare, in how many the live change and the Bulletin change moved in the same direction, how far apart the two weekly changes were on average, and how far apart the price levels were on the same Mondays.

• A week = two consecutive Mondays with both a Bulletin figure and a live national average. Live figure: fuel-prices.eu daily national average of station prices (Greece: average of prefecture averages); Bulletin: national average price with taxes (European Commission).
• Weeks = weeks compared; Matched = weeks in which the live change and the Bulletin change had the same direction. Change gap = mean of |live change − Bulletin change|; level gap = mean of (live average − Bulletin figure) on the closing Monday of each week. Both in euro cents per litre (c/L).

Each sentence names the fuel, the currency, the date and the source. Copy it as it is, or take the figures.

This week so far

Track record

How to read the signal

Your country

CountryAustriaCroatiaDenmarkFranceGreeceItalyLithuaniaRomaniaSloveniaSpain

• Table: Diesel: live change since the Bulletin of 21 Sep 202610 rows · comma-separated, UTF-8 · source and licence in the last linesCSV
• Table: Petrol: live change since the Bulletin of 21 Sep 202610 rows · comma-separated, UTF-8 · source and licence in the last linesCSV
• Table: Diesel: track record of the live signal, Bulletins to 21 Sep 202610 rows · comma-separated, UTF-8 · source and licence in the last linesCSV
• Table: Petrol: track record of the live signal, Bulletins to 21 Sep 202610 rows · comma-separated, UTF-8 · source and licence in the last linesCSV
• Chart: Diesel: live daily average vs EU Weekly Oil Bulletin, by countryPNG, 1720 × 1426 px, in the colours on your screen (use the light/dark switch at the top to change them) · source written in the imageDownload PNG
• Chart: Petrol: live daily average vs EU Weekly Oil Bulletin, by countryPNG, 1720 × 1426 px, in the colours on your screen (use the light/dark switch at the top to change them) · source written in the imageDownload PNG

Downloads contain exactly the figures on this page, with their dates and sources.

• Week by week (CSV): all 231 country-fuel-weeks behind the tables, with both prices and both changes, so every figure can be recomputed.

• What is compared. For each country and fuel, the change in our live national average between two consecutive Mondays, and the change in the EU Weekly Oil Bulletin figure between the same two Mondays (the Bulletin reports prices in force on Monday). Both changes are in euro per litre, taxes included.
• Live figures. The daily national statistics of our research dataset D2 (/research/): the average of the prices published that day by every station in the national feed, after removing implausible prices (below half or above twice the day’s median). Greece: average of the prefecture averages published by the Fuel Price Observatory. Days that D2 flags as low coverage are left out. Denmark and Romania are converted to euro at the ECB rate of each day.
• Fuels. Diesel, and 95-octane petrol as shown on our live pages (France: SP95-E10; Austria and Denmark: 95 E10; Romania: standard petrol 95). The Bulletin’s petrol figure is Euro-super 95.
• Bulletin figures. National average pump prices with taxes, € per litre, as currently published in the European Commission’s Weekly Oil Bulletin price history (a week the Commission revised uses the revised figure). The Bulletin usually comes out on the Thursday after its Monday price date.
• Direction. Up (↑) when a change is at least +0.05 euro cents per litre (+0.1 after rounding), down (↓) when it is at most −0.05, otherwise unchanged (→). A week matches when the live change and the Bulletin change have the same direction.
• Match, gaps. Match = weeks with the same direction ÷ weeks compared. Average gap = mean distance between the two weekly changes. Level gap = mean of (live average − Bulletin figure) on the closing Monday of each week; it varies by country because the two are measured differently (all stations in the feed on one day, versus each government’s own national average method).
• When a direction is shown. Only where the live signal matched the Bulletin in at least 80% of at least 10 full weeks, and also in at least 80% of at least 10 weeks at this point of the week (the same number of days after Monday as today’s latest live data). Otherwise the table says why: not enough history, below 80%, or too early this week. The thresholds are ours; they are not a statistical test.
• What this is not. Not a forecast of prices, of the Bulletin figure or of the EU average: the signal covers 10 of the 27 EU countries and gives only a direction. Live averages are not estimates of the Bulletin level. Past agreement does not guarantee future agreement, especially when prices barely move or when a tax change takes effect on a set date.
• Countries. Austria, Croatia, Denmark, France, Greece, Italy, Lithuania, Romania, Slovenia and Spain: the EU countries in our public daily dataset D2. The other 17 EU countries are not in D2, so they are not covered here.
• Updates. Daily, after our research dataset D2 is rebuilt each morning, and when a new Bulletin arrives. Each figure on this page is dated: “live data to” is the last day of live data used, “Bulletin of” the Monday price date of the last Bulletin.
• Week-by-week data. Every week used in the tables, with both prices and both changes: download the CSV.

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